Opinion poll
A survey of public opinion from a particular sample.
An opinion poll—also called a survey or simply a poll—is a form of human research that gathers public opinion from a specific sample. Its goal is to reflect the views of a larger population by asking a set of questions and then drawing general conclusions, often expressed as ratios or within confidence intervals. The person who runs a poll is known as a pollster.
The earliest recorded opinion poll appeared before the 1824 U.S. presidential election, when two newspapers tallied voter preferences and reported that Andrew Jackson led John Quincy Adams. Because Jackson won both the popular vote in that state and the national popular vote, these informal "straw votes" grew in popularity, though they remained mostly local or citywide efforts.
In 1916, *The Literary Digest* conducted a national survey—partly to boost circulation—and correctly predicted Woodrow Wilson's victory. By mailing millions of postcards and simply counting the returns, the magazine also correctly forecast the wins of Warren Harding (1920), Calvin Coolidge (1924), Herbert Hoover (1928), and Franklin Roosevelt (1932). However, in 1936, its survey of 2.3 million voters indicated that Alf Landon would win, but Roosevelt won by a landslide. George Gallup's research revealed the error was due to participation bias: Landon supporters were more eager to return their postcards. Additionally, the postcards were sent to a wealthier audience than the general U.S. population, who were more likely to lean Republican. Around the same time, Gallup, Archibald Crossley, and Elmo Roper ran smaller but more scientifically grounded surveys, and all three correctly predicted the outcome. *The Literary Digest* soon went out of business, while professional polling took off. Roper went on to correctly predict Roosevelt's next two reelections. Louis Harris entered public opinion work in 1947, joining Elmo Roper's firm and later becoming a partner.
In September 1938, after meeting Gallup, Jean Stoetzel founded IFOP (Institut Français d'Opinion Publique) in Paris—the first European survey institute. He began political polling in the summer of 1939 with the question "Why die for Danzig?" to gauge public support for or dissent from a phrase used by appeasement politician Marcel Déat. Gallup set up a subsidiary in the United Kingdom that was nearly alone in correctly predicting Labour's victory in the 1945 general elec
- first_known_example
- 1824 U.S. presidential election
- pioneers
- George Gallup, Archibald Crossley, Elmo Roper
- first_European_institute
- IFOP, founded September 1938 by Jean Stoetzel
- common_methods
- telecommunications, in-person, Internet surveys, social media analysis
- types
- benchmark polls, tracking polls, deliberative opinion polls
Lore & Background
The first known opinion poll was a tally of voter preferences reported by the Raleigh Star and North Carolina State Gazette and the Wilmington American Watchman and Delaware Advertiser prior to the 1824 presidential election, showing Andrew Jackson leading John Quincy Adams by 335 votes to 169. Since Jackson won the popular vote in that state and the national popular vote, such straw votes gradually became more popular, but they remained local, usually citywide phenomena. In 1916, The Literary Digest embarked on a national survey and correctly predicted Woodrow Wilson's election, and also correctly predicted the victories of Warren Harding in 1920, Calvin Coolidge in 1924, Herbert Hoover in 1928, and Franklin Roosevelt in 1932. In 1936, its survey of 2.3 million voters suggested Alf Landon would win, but Roosevelt was re-elected by a landslide. George Gallup's research found the error was mainly caused by participation bias and that the postcards were sent to a target audience more affluent than the American population as a whole. At the same time, Gallup, Archibald Crossley, and Elmo Roper conducted smaller but more scientifically based surveys and all three correctly predicted the result. The Literary Digest soon went out of business, while polling started to take off.
Reader's Guide
Opinion polls have become a standard tool for gauging public sentiment in politics, market research, and social science. The 1936 Literary Digest failure demonstrated the dangers of non-representative sampling, leading to the adoption of more rigorous methods such as random sampling and weighting. Polls like benchmark polls help campaigns assess a candidate's initial standing and identify persuadable voters, while tracking polls monitor shifts over time using moving averages, though they can be volatile. Deliberative opinion polls combine polling with discussion to measure informed opinion. The development of Internet surveys and social media analysis has expanded polling methods, but response rates have declined for some surveys. The industry's role in shaping consumer culture and political strategy has been significant, as noted by historian Jackson Lears, who argued that advertisers helped create the consumer culture that dominated post-World War II American society.
Did You Know?
- The first known opinion poll was a tally of voter preferences reported by newspapers prior to the 1824 U.S. presidential election, showing Andrew Jackson leading John Quincy Adams.
- In 1936, The Literary Digest's survey of 2.3 million voters incorrectly predicted Alf Landon would win, while George Gallup's smaller, more scientific survey correctly predicted Roosevelt's re-election.
- Jean Stoetzel created IFOP, the first European survey institute, in Paris in September 1938 after meeting George Gallup.
- A benchmark poll is generally the first poll taken in a campaign, often before a candidate announces their bid for office.
More in Social Issues 1-24
Spotted an error? Know more?
This is a living reference — every entry is fact-audited, and reader corrections feed straight into our audit queue. Suggest an edit · See this site's audit record